Will the Elections be Rigged? Beware of Disinformation!

By Monika Szafranska, Demagog | 22 September 2023

Nearly 40 percent of Poles suspect that the results of the upcoming elections may be rigged. This is according to a July poll by Rzeczpospolita. Declining trust in the institution of elections means that the argument about their unfairness is increasingly used in disinformation campaigns. What are the mechanisms behind this?

Accusations of election rigging are a motif that returns from time to time in the public debate, not only in the period around elections. In Poland, for months now, we have been dealing with mutual accusations by the government and the opposition that the latter wants to manipulate the results of the autumn vote.

Recently, an article on disinformation about election rigging appeared in an American academic journal. The authors analyzed opinion polls from 82 countries to see what factors lead people to believe that elections are fraudulent. There are important conclusions from the study – especially in the context of the ongoing election campaign in Poland.

Disinformation vs. belief in election integrity

The researchers’ main conclusion is that, in general, the public does not consider elections to be rigged. However, there are of course exceptions to this rule. The more extreme opinions tend to apply to those who are particularly politically engaged. Thus, supporters of the losing side tend to form a negative opinion of the election results, while supporters of the winning side tend to form a positive opinion.

Such a conclusion may seem trivial at first glance. However, we must not forget that electoral processes today are increasingly influenced by disinformation, which reduces the ability to think critically.

A person who has regularly received messages about accomplished or planned electoral manipulation will be more inclined to accept the extreme narrative and believe the alleged rigging.

How does this relate to pre-election reality?

Let’s go back to the poll for “Rzeczpospolita” mentioned at the beginning. The exact results are as follows:

• According to 18.1 percent of respondents, no irregularities will occur at the elections,
• 4 percent of respondents believe that minor irregularities may occur at the elections,
• 39 percent of respondents believe that the elections could be rigged,
• 5 percent of respondents have no opinion.

It’s hardly surprising to see such a high level of distrust, given that we hear quite often from leading politicians and the media that someone will rig the elections. Here are a handful of examples.

Who is rigging the elections? Always the latter

Just last year, Jaroslaw Kaczynski announced the creation of an “election protection corps” consisting of monitoring the voting process. The Law and Justice chairman also announced changes in the law, which he justified by the need to make elections “more difficult to rig.”

Similar accusations are coming from opposition circles. In July of this year, we described a “Newsweek” piece titled: “Former Law and Justice activist: I saw Law and Justice rigging elections. I myself was influenced by the rigging.” The text was based on the account of one person who allegedly witnessed election manipulation in 2019, while it omitted at least the fact that the election result was recognized by the Supreme Court. As a result, false information began circulating on social media that the United Right government was illegitimate.

The discussion has returned recently. In July, during a meeting with voters, Rafal Trzaskowski expressed the opinion that the fall elections might not be fully equal. He later reiterated his concerns in an interview with Rzeczpospolita. Although Trzaskowski did not directly accuse those in power of planning electoral rigging, this is precisely the tone that many media outlets, such as Forsal.pl, NaTemat.pl and Niezależna.pl, gave to his words.

Disinformationists are not sleeping

That’s not all, however. Social media is also full of allegations and conspiracy theories about election rigging. For several months, Demagog has been witnessing a disinformation narrative about alleged plans to rig the 2023 parliamentary elections using refugees from Ukraine.

According to this theory, Ukrainians, thanks to the PESEL numbers they receive, will be able to vote in the fall elections. Opponents of supporting refugees argue that the government is generously trying to curry favor with Ukrainians in order to win elections with their votes.

However, the truth is that having a PESEL number does not give you the opportunity to vote in Polish elections. We have written several times that you need citizenship to obtain the right to vote, which PESEL does not provide (1, 2, 3, 4).

However, this does not stop disinformers from increasingly linking anti-Ukrainian sentiment in parts of Polish society with the spread of fake news about the elections.

Why is this important?

Over indulging in fake news about election rigging has led to dramatic events in the past. One of them was the storming of the Capitol in early 2021 just after Donald Trump lost the presidential election. The attack resulted in the deaths of five police officers.

The tragedy might not have happened if it weren’t for the belief of Trump supporters that the election was rigged. Their views did not come out of nowhere. U.S. fact-checkers verified the plethora of misinformation about the alleged rigging that circulated (and continues to circulate) on social media, inciting and polarizing voters (e.g., 1, 2, 3). You can also read a compilation of the most important fake news related to the storming of the Capitol on our website.

Attack on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021. Donald Trump supporters attacked the building in protest of alleged election fraud. Photo by Tyler Merbler / Wikimedia Commons CC BY 2.0

We faced a similar situation in Brazil in early 2023. There, too, supporters of the candidate who lost the election – that is, incumbent President Jair Bolsonar – let storm state buildings.

At the time, Peter Litwin wrote in Demagogue: “This is a consequence of the disinformation that has been fueled for many months, as well as coordinated actions on social media.” After all, disinformation is usually controlled from the top down by people and groups who find it profitable to polarize and divide society.

We keep an eye on the elections

It is worth remembering that the purpose of disinformation is not to spread false content per se. It is primarily about dividing people and stirring up extreme emotions to undermine trust in public institutions, among other things.

A conflicted society more easily succumbs to manipulation and becomes susceptible to outside influence, if only from hostile powers – such as Russia and China – who are eager to interfere with content available on social media around the world.

At Demagog, we are committed to ensuring that the discourse around the elections is marked by truthful information and honest debate. We constantly check both fake content about the elections and statements made by politicians who are running in these elections. To always have access to verified information, follow our “Elections” tab.