Polish Ruling Party Hopes to Remain in Power but Potential Coalition Partner Rejects Idea

By Daniel Tilles, Notes from Poland | 16 October 2023

Despite exit polls from yesterday’s elections indicating that the opposition will have a majority in the new parliament, the ruling national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party has insisted that it will try to form a coalition of its own to remain in power.

However, the leader of the Polish People’s Party (PSL), a group that one senior PiS figure says is a potential partner, have unambiguously ruled out the idea.

An updated version of last night’s exit poll suggests that, although PiS won the largest vote share of any single party, 36.6%, that would only translate into 200 seats in the 460-seat parliament – 31 short of a majority.

Meanwhile, a likely opposition coalition of the centrist Civic Coalition (KO) (31%, 161 seats), the centre-right Third Way (Trzecia Droga) (13.5%, 57 seats) and The Left (Lewica) (8.6%, 30 seats), would have a combined majority of 248 seats, according to the exit poll.

However, by tradition, the president gives the largest single party the first chance to form a government. After the exit poll was announced last night, PiS Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki insisted that, “in accordance with the rules of democracy…we will certainly try to build a parliamentary majority”.

Subsequently, a senior PiS figure, Zdzisław Krasnodębski, said that the party would “start talking with PSL about the possibility of forming a government”, according to journalist Klaudiusz Slezak of broadcaster Radio Nowy Świat.

PSL is a moderately conservative, agrarian party that makes up one half of the Third Way coalition. Throughout the campaign it has made clear that it has no interest in an arrangement with PiS and would instead be part of a potential opposition coalition government.

That position has now been repeated by senior PSL figures. “Forget about it,” the party’s spokesman, Miłosz Motyka, tweeted in response to Krasnodębski’s remarks. “For these lies, for these slanders, for hatred and spitting on all of us, for theft and all the scandals – we will hold you accountable.”

This morning, the party’s leader, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, told broadcaster RMF that “I rule out a coalition with PiS. Those who voted for us want a change of government”.

In an interview with TVN last night, Kosiniak-Kamysz also appealed to President Duda, who is a PiS ally, to consult with all parties before nominating a prime minister so that he can “entrust the mission of forming a government to those groups that have a real chance [of being able] to do so.”

Should the exit poll prove correct, PSL’s rejection of an arrangement with PiS would leave the latter without any possibility of forming a ruling majority.

The far-right Confederation (Konfederacja) has sometimes been mentioned as a potential partner for PiS. However, not only have its leaders ruled out that idea, but the party’s result in the exit poll – 6.4% of the vote, translating into 14 seats in parliament – would not be enough to give PiS a majority.